Wednesday, June 25, 2008

Adult DVD Sales On Serious Decline [misc. thoughts]

After 11% less sales in 2006, the drop of sales reached the 20% mark in 2007 - i've seen even higher figures mentioned, but research that for yourself.

Now it may come as a surprise here that business insiders do NOT claim piracy/filesharing for these losses. But rather the emerge of web 2.0 sites like YouPorn, PornoTube, DialyMotion etc etc. Vivid, the largest adult company, even expressed plans to puchase YouPorn and establish it as a brand and/or platform for a new style of business ventures.

They also praised YouPorn as a stronghold for amateur style content. Something Vivid obviously doesn't have.

OK, i must admit that i hardly ever go to those sites. For me they are a complete waste of time. What you find there are hundreds, if not thousands blurry 1 min samples of mainstream movies. Or homemade flicks, usually extremely grainy and dark. Maybe, when you search for many hours, you might find something worthwhile. I don't have that time.

Clear facts: These sites have huge traffic. Alexa f. ex. ranked YouPorn as the #32 world wide. OTOH the content on these web 2.0 sites is completely different compared to what Vivid and other companies are selling - low resolution samples or amateur clips versus full-length high resolution movies. The only edge these sites have is being free and having a plethora of content as unpredictable as a jungle.


So how can there be a competition after all? To begin with, most people do not have the thorough knowledge of the biz like me. Thus my ignorance of these sites ain't representative at all. However the average user:
- just can tell the names of a few names of his favorite porn stars,
- has seen tiny images of the box covers of DVD releases with them (thus having little indication if those are worth buying)
- knows they are on something like 25 paysites (each charging $25 or more) with only a few scenes presenting a particular porn star.

Now this person might more or less give up on the mainstream content. And just spend hours on YouPorn etc. Now a very trivial circumstance kicks in: People have to work and take care of their lives in general. And after spending 2 - 3 hours on YouPorn there simply isn't much time left to spend on shopping for other content. They may still buy a few DVDs. But way less than before. Here's your simple reason why the web 2.0 porn sites cut into the adult DVD sales.

I expect this tendency to continue. But not that it will kill the adult industry. Far form that! But i expect the business to change considerably. Maybe in a way similar to the music industry. For example that the star will become more important than the company. That those models/stars who are coming up with distinctive and unmistakable content will play a role like independent acts in the music industry. Such as having a loyal fanbase, with people willing to pay for their creations. In case they can find them easily - like when they have their content bundled on one place, like a personal site. Or when they work only with a few companies.

So far the web 2.0 sites have affected DVD sales more than mainstream paysites. Simply because physical media is getting less attractive anyway (downloads are more convenient). But there's also the competition web 2.0 sites versus mainstream paysites - assuming that we've just seen the start of web 2.0 sites, with many more to emerge. People still will be willing to spend money on porn. They will become much more picky. But they also spend their bucks because of loyally liking a model.

6 comments:

Ralla said...

although i don't share all the views on the industry you provide here, i am with you about the change of importance on the person as performer/star. i also believe it will go the same way as the music industry went(i just hope without the "sue everyone who is alive" ideology).

panhype said...

Hi ralla!

Thanks for your comment.I'd be curious to hear more of your views. Let me also say that i'm not tied to my views expressed here, particularly not after the business is in such a change as it seems to be right now.

Pornster said...

I don't know.
The webgirl solo sites have been around for a while.
It is true that the girls can build a fan base.
But on the other hand, sites like the brazzer and bangbros network are make a lot of money. I don't think there is an end to their success any time in the near future. They produce porn. And what they offer is worth the money.
Having this "fit" of content and price, paired with a strategy that suits your customers needs seem to be the critical success factors in the game.

panhype said...

I agree which all you have said, pornster.

From what i can see, the bigger companies now seem to be focusing more on their internet (paysites etc) activities. To gain more revenues from that market - so that the declining DVD market will hurt them less or not at all.

What i definitely can see is that some of the bigger sites have considerably increased their pace of updates. By either shooting more content and/or adding more sites to the network so that customers will get updates almost daily now. I noticed that f. ex. with Scoreland and PlumperPass. But i'm sure others are doing that as well.

Where will that lead to? Maybe to a 'consolidation' of the market, with some of the smaller players disappearing? Maybe.

It's true that the paysites are facing the competition of the web 2.0 sites as well. But they can beat them with the freshness and visual quality of their content. DVDs OTOH are a much slower medium.

Pornster said...

From what I read in an article about youporn, the big porn companies try to distinguish themselves from the competition by making their movies MORE expensive than others.
Like the pirate of the caribean porn movie.

Sounds like an interesting, but also rather insane strategy to me.

Have you read that article?
It's here:
http://www.portfolio.com/culture-lifestyle/culture-inc/arts/2007/10/15/YouPorn-Vivid-Entertainment-Profile

Espinafrina silva said...

The internet is no going back I see that soon will have a similar to Netflix in Brazil enjoyed porn
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